[The epidemiology of AIDS/HIV in Mexico: from 1983 to March 1995]

The purpose of this study is to analyze the HIV/AIDS magnitude, distribution, frequency, patterns, trends, risk factors, risk groups, estimation and evaluation of interventions in Mexico during the last twelve years. Results of a summary of statistics and results from several sources are presented including the National Registry of AIDS cases, HIV sentinel surveillance in 18 cities of the country, analysis of death certificates, cross-sectional, longitudinal, observational, and intervention studies. As of March 1995, 34,230 AIDS cases, 120,000 HIV infections and 21,000 AIDS deaths are estimated. A damaged exponential growth with duplication of AIDS cases every 18 months can be seen. Epidemiological patterns of transmission are found primarily among men with homosexual and bisexual practices. The male:female ratio is 6 to 1. In 1992 AIDS was the 19th cause of death among the general population. At least two patterns of transmission have been identified: one is the western-urban pattern which contributes with more than 90% of cases and the other, more recent, has been described as Caribbean-rural. Blood transmission of AIDS shows a downward trend, and heterosexual and perinatal transmission is slightly increasing. Seroprevalence among adults is 0.06%: however, among groups with risk practices, rates up to 50% have been found. Risk factors are similar to those described in the literature in other countries, and have been used for designing interventions. Evaluation of interventions has been accomplished by demonstrating positive results in the prevention of blood transmission and sexual transmission among female commercial sex workers; prevention efforts directed to men with homosexual practices have not been successful. Between 77,000 and 88,000 cumulated AIDS cases are estimated in Mexico for the year 2000.