A mathematical model for predicting trends in carbon monoxide emissions and exposures on urban arterial highways

The roadway is one of the most important microenvironments for human exposure to carbon monoxide (CO). To evaluate long-term changes in pollutant exposure due to in-transit activities, a mathematical model has been developed to predict average daily vehicular emissions on highways. By utilizing measurements that are specific for a given location and year (e.g., traffic counts, fleet composition), this model can predict emissions for a specific roadway during various time periods of interest, allowing examination of long-term trends in human exposure to CO. For an arterial highway in northern California, this model predicts that CO emissions should have declined by 58% between 1980 and 1991, which agrees fairly well with field measurements of human exposure taken along that roadway during those two years. An additional reduction of up to 60% in CO emissions is predicted to occur between 1991 and 2002, due solely to the continued replacement of older cars with newer, cleaner vehicles.