Radioepidemiology of the A-bomb survivors

Estimation of the risk of cancer and other health effects following exposure to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki remains largely empirical, and the models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of the past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation of risk where the epidemiologic data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Although the risk estimates may be sufficient for regulatory purposes, without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that the estimates will be as intellectually satisfying as they might be. Nor will the situation improve further without attention to the identification and estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or diminish risk of cancer or the effects on the developing brain.