Risk of developing end-stage renal disease in a cohort of mass screening

The prognostic significance of abnormal findings has not been demonstrated in a setting of mass screening. To evaluate the relative risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) indicated by various results of community-based mass screening, we utilized the registries of both community mass screening and chronic dialysis programs. In 1983, a total of 107,192 subjects over 18 years of age (51,122 men and 56,070 women) participated in dipstick urinalysis and blood pressure measurement in Okinawa, Japan. During ten years of follow-up, we identified 193 dialysis patients (105 men and 88 women) among them. Logistic regression analysis of clinical predictors of ESRD over 10 years was done and the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval were calculated in each of the predictors with adjustment to others. In the clinical predictors such as sex, age at screening, proteinuria, hematuria, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, proteinuria was the most potent predictor of ESRD (adjusted odds ratio 14.9, 95% confidence interval 10.9 to 20.2), and the next most potent predictor was hematuria (adjusted odds ratio 2.30, 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 3.28). Being of male gender was a significant risk factor for ESRD (adjusted odds ratio 1.41, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.92). Diastolic blood pressure was also a significant predictor of ESRD (adjusted odds ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.64), but systolic blood pressure was not. In a mass screening setting, positive urine test, high diastolic blood pressure, and male sex were identified as the significant predictors of ESRD. Effect of glycosuria and other possible predictors of ESRD remained to be determined.