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Projecting future drug expenditures--1996

J P Santell1

  • 1American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Bethesda, MD, USA.

American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy : AJHP : Official Journal of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists
|January 15, 1996
PubMed
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Accurate drug expenditure projections require integrating data on inflation, pharmacoeconomics, generic competition, new drug approvals, and legislative changes. Understanding these factors is crucial for pharmacists and healthcare managers to manage drug costs effectively.

Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Pharmaceutical Policy
  • Pharmacy Management

Background:

  • Drug price inflation has significantly decreased due to manufacturer discounts for managed care institutions.
  • Projections indicate a potential increase in pharmaceutical prices in the near future.
  • The landscape of drug pricing and expenditure is influenced by various economic, regulatory, and market factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To discuss the multifaceted information required for accurate drug expenditure projections.
  • To highlight the importance of critically evaluating pharmacoeconomic research.
  • To emphasize the need for proactive strategies in managing drug costs.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of trends in drug price inflation and manufacturer discounting.

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  • Review of factors influencing generic drug savings, including patent extensions.
  • Examination of the impact of new drug approvals, indications, and off-label uses.
  • Consideration of legislative activities and healthcare environment changes.
  • Discussion of methods for tracking site-specific drug-use patterns.

    • Main Results:

    • Drug price inflation has declined from 6.9% in 1991 to 2.1% by mid-1995, largely due to discounts.
    • Future pharmaceutical price increases are projected to average 2.8% (range 0-6%).
    • Generic savings may be partially offset by patent extensions under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
    • New legislative reforms and evolving healthcare approaches like disease management impact drug marketing and pricing.

    Conclusions:

    • Accurate drug expenditure forecasting necessitates a comprehensive approach integrating inflation, pharmacoeconomics, generic utilization, new drug pipelines, and legislative impacts.
    • Pharmacists must critically assess pharmacoeconomic data, especially industry-sponsored studies.
    • Proactive cost management, including pre-market analysis of high-cost drugs, is advantageous for pharmacy managers.
    • The dynamic healthcare environment and cooperative arrangements between drug companies and providers significantly influence drug pricing and expenditures.