A biologically based model for the analysis of premalignant foci of arbitrary shape

In many animal carcinogenesis experiments, quantitative data on putative premalignant foci are now routinely collected. Moolgavkar et al. [Carcinogenesis 11:1271 (1990)] considered the analysis of such data from a rat hepatocarcinogenesis experiment within the framework of a two-stage model for carcinogenesis using the assumption that the premalignant clones were spherical. This assumption seems questionable in many organs, including the liver. In this paper, it is relaxed and arbitrary shapes are allowed for the clones. The proposed method is illustrated by reanalysis of the data considered in the earlier paper. The new analysis yields parameter estimates that are more plausible biologically than those of the original analysis.