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Using time intervals between expected events to communicate risk magnitudes

N D Weinstein1, K Kolb, B D Goldstein

  • 1Department of Human Ecology, Cook College, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08903, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|June 1, 1996
PubMed
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Communicating health risks using time intervals, like deaths per year, is more understandable than odds ratios for the public. This method significantly reduced perceived threat in smaller communities.

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Risk Communication
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Public understanding of health risks, particularly odds ratios, is often limited.
  • Comparing risks from different hazards presented as odds ratios is challenging for the general population.
  • Effective risk communication strategies are crucial for public health decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the effectiveness of using time intervals between harmful events as a risk communication tool.
  • To compare public perception of risk when presented as odds ratios versus time intervals.
  • To assess how population size influences the impact of different risk communication methods.

Main Methods:

  • A study involving 705 homeowners assessed perceptions of arsenic in drinking water risk.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Risk was communicated using odds ratios (1 in 1000 or 1 in 100,000) and population sizes (small town or large city).
  • Time intervals were calculated, ranging from 1 death every 4 months to 1 death in 3500 years.

    • Main Results:

    • Adding time intervals to odds ratios significantly reduced perceived threat and need for action in a small town scenario.
    • This communication approach did not significantly alter risk perception in the large city scenario.
    • The observed framing effects were comparable in magnitude to a 100-fold difference in actual risk.

    Conclusions:

    • Communicating health risks through time intervals can be more effective than traditional odds ratios, especially in smaller populations.
    • The effectiveness of time-interval risk communication may be context-dependent, influenced by factors like population size.
    • This strategy offers a promising avenue for improving public understanding and engagement with environmental health risks.