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Using a mixture model to detect son preference in Vietnam

D Haughton1, J Haughton

  • 1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Bentley College, Waltham, Massachusetts, USA.

Journal of Biosocial Science
|July 1, 1996
PubMed
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In Vietnam, about half of parents exhibit son preference and desire fewer children. The other half shows no son preference and tends to have more children, with birth intervals harder to predict.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Sociology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Son preference is a significant factor influencing fertility behaviors in Vietnam.
  • Previous studies often assume uniform family preferences, potentially overlooking heterogeneity.
  • Understanding diverse parental preferences is crucial for accurate demographic modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the heterogeneity of son preference among Vietnamese families.
  • To apply a mixture model to better represent diverse fertility preferences.
  • To analyze the factors influencing birth intervals in relation to parental preferences.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the 1992-93 Vietnam Living Standards Survey.
  • Specified and estimated a two-Weibull regression model for birth intervals.
Keywords:
AsiaBehaviorDeveloping CountriesFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFamily RelationshipsMethodological StudiesModels, TheoreticalPsychological FactorsResearch MethodologySex PreferenceSonsSoutheastern AsiaValue OrientationViet Nam

Related Experiment Videos

  • Employed information criteria, graphical analysis, and martingale-based residuals for model comparison.

    • Main Results:

    • The two-Weibull mixture model provided a superior fit compared to a single-Weibull model.
    • Identified two distinct groups of parents: one with son preference and a tendency for fewer children, and another without son preference and a tendency for more children.
    • The birth interval predictability varied significantly between the two identified parental groups.

    Conclusions:

    • Vietnamese parental preferences regarding child gender and family size are heterogeneous.
    • Mixture models offer a more nuanced approach to understanding fertility decisions than single-model assumptions.
    • Findings highlight the complexity of factors influencing birth intervals and family planning in Vietnam.