[Prognostic indicators in patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to an intensive care unit]

Assessment of prognosis in patients with cirrhosis admitted to an Intensive Care Unit remains unsatisfactory. The aims of this retrospective study were to determine the survival rates of patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit, and to identify and validate prognostic indicators associated with a high mortality rate.

Two hundred and forty three patients with cirrhosis consecutively admitted to the Intensive Care Unit were studied. The main reasons for admission were upper gastrointestinal bleeding (n = 163), coma (n = 43), sepsis (n = 18), and liver failure (n = 13). Patients were divided into two groups: group 1 (n = 121) to identify prognostic indicators associated with a high mortality rate, and group 2 (n = 122) to validate these indicators.

Intensive Care Unit and one year survival rates of patients with cirrhosis admitted for upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage were 76 and 50% respectively. These rates were 40 and 8% respectively for patients admitted for other reasons. In group 1, 4 predictive factors found at admission were identified to have independent significance by stepwise logistic regression: grade III or IV encephalopathy, prothrombin index, serum creatinine, and hypoxemia. On the other hand, the presence of shock on admission was associated with a 100% mortality rate. Two prognostic indicators were defined: shock requiring the administration of vasoactive drugs, and the presence of 3 out of the 4 following predictive factors: grade III or IV encephalopathy, mechanical ventilation, prothrombin index < 30%, and serum creatinine > 130 mumol/L. In group 2, the presence of at least one prognostic indicator at admission or during intensive care was associated with a 96% mortality rate. These indicators were present in 69% of patients who died. In 17 patients who died, but survived more than 24 hours in the Intensive Care Unit, indicators were present an average of 6.0 +/- 5.3 days before death.

Common prognostic indicators may accurately predict death in patients with cirrhosis admitted to an Intensive Care Unit. These indicators could be helpful in identifying patients who will not benefit from intensive care.