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Space, time and persistence of virulent pathogens
1Mathematical Institute, University of St. Andrews, North Haugh, U.K.
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|June 22, 1996
Summary
Highly virulent pathogens can persist in spatially distributed host populations, contrary to traditional epidemiological theory. This persistence is driven by complex spatial dynamics, offering potential for biological pest control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Ecology
Background:
- Traditional epidemiological models suggest highly virulent pathogens cannot become endemic.
- Host population structure significantly influences disease dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the persistence of highly virulent pathogens in spatially structured host populations.
- To explore the role of complex spatial dynamics in pathogen persistence.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an empirically based lattice map model.
- Simulated pathogen dynamics in spatially distributed host populations.
- Analyzed the impact of host spatial distribution on pathogen persistence.
Main Results:
- A highly virulent pathogen, unable to persist in a well-mixed population, can persist in a spatially distributed population.
- Persistence is facilitated by internally generated complex spatial dynamics.
- Sufficiently large host population areas are crucial for pathogen persistence.
Conclusions:
- Spatially structured host populations can enable the endemicity of highly virulent pathogens.
- Complex spatial dynamics provide a mechanism for virulent pathogen persistence.
- This finding suggests potential applications for biological pest control using virulent pathogens.