Prognosis in chronic fatigue syndrome: a prospective study on the natural course

To determine spontaneous improvement after a follow up interval of 18 months in patients with chronic fatigue syndrome and to identify factors that predict improvement.

A longitudinal study was used. Of 298 initially assessed self referred patients fulfilling criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome, 246 patients completed self report questionnaires at follow up (response rate 83%). A multidimensional assessment method was used, measuring behavioural, emotional, cognitive, and social functioning. Comparison data from 53 healthy subjects matched for age, sex, and educational level were available.

Three per cent of patients reported complete recovery and 17% reported improvement. At follow up, there were considerable problems at work and consumption of medication was high. Subjective improvement was confirmed by dimensional change: at follow up recovered patients had similar scores to healthy subjects and improved patients showed significant improvement on four out of seven outcome measures and had higher scores than healthy subjects in all dimensions. Sociodemographic variables or treatment by specialists and alternative practitioners did not predict improvement. Predictors of improvement were: subjective sense of control over symptoms, less fatigue, shorter duration of complaints, and a relative absence of physical attributions.

The improvement rate in patients with a relatively long duration of complaints is small. Psychological factors are related to improvement, especially cognitive factors.