A multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors in severe liver trauma

To examine the significance of physiologic and biochemical variables in liver trauma quantitatively, and to establish the early predictors of mortality according to the causes of death, 36 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for liver trauma between 1984 and 1993 were retrospectively studied. A univariate analysis revealed that shock, preoperative systolic blood pressure (SBP), preoperative alanine aminotransferase (ALT), the number of associated organ injuries, the Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), blood replacement requirements, and postoperative blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were significant prognostic factors of survival after liver trauma. However, a multivariate analysis indicated that GCS, postoperative BUN, the number of associated organ injuries, preoperative ALT, and SBP were independent prognostic factors. Because the causes of death after liver trauma can be divided into early hemorrhage and late sepsis, a multiple regression analysis of preoperative and postoperative variables was performed for each cause. The prognostic factors for hemorrhagic death were preoperative ALT, base excess, and the platelet count, whereas those for death due to sepsis were preoperative SBP and the presence of gastrointestinal injuries. These results suggest the value of measuring the preoperative serum level of ALT as a new independent prognostic factor for predicting overall and hemorrhagic death following severe liver trauma.