Risk factors and predictive indexes of early graft failure in liver transplantation

A retrospective analysis of 462 consecutive liver transplantations has been carried out. These were divided into two groups, according to whether they failed within 90 days (Group I) or survived longer than 90 days (Group II). Twenty-five donor and recipient variables were analyzed. In the univariate analysis, the only donor variable that was significantly different between the two groups was age (45.3 +/- 16.9 years in Group I vs 37.9 +/- 15.4 years in Group II, p < 0.001). There were five recipient variables significantly associated with early graft failure: history of previous liver transplantations (p < 0.0001), United Network for Organ Sharing 4 status (p = 0.003), primary diagnosis (p = 0.001), preoperative serum creatinine (1.97 +/- 1.5 mg/dL in Group I vs 1.46 +/- 1.2 mg/dL in Group II, p = 0.005), and preoperative total serum bilirubin (13.5 +/- 14.4 mg/dL in Group I vs 8.4 +/- 11.4 mg/dL in Group II, p = 0.003). In the multivariate analysis, only three variables were independently associated with outcome: donor age greater than 45 years, abnormal (> 1.5 mg/dL) recipient preoperative creatinine, and a history of previous liver transplantation.