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Projected societal needs in pediatric otolaryngology
1Department of Otolaryngology, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA.
The Laryngoscope
|September 1, 1996
Summary
The number of pediatric otolaryngologists trained in fellowships is increasing. Current training rates suggest societal needs for these specialists will be met within 7 years.
Area of Science:
- Medical Education
- Pediatric Otolaryngology
- Healthcare Workforce Planning
Background:
- Fellowship training programs in pediatric otolaryngology have expanded significantly.
- Concerns exist regarding a potential oversupply of fellowship-trained pediatric otolaryngologists.
- Assessing future physician supply against societal demand is crucial for healthcare planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the projected societal need for fellowship-trained pediatric otolaryngologists.
- To estimate the timeline for meeting this societal need based on current training trends.
Main Methods:
- Data collection from national organizations and fellowship training programs.
- Utilization of a hospital-based practitioner model to forecast patient care needs.
- Inclusion of anticipated changes in healthcare systems, such as managed-care capitation.
Main Results:
- The projected societal need for pediatric otolaryngologists is 382.
- At current fellowship training rates, this need is anticipated to be met in approximately 7 years.
Conclusions:
- The current trajectory of fellowship training is likely to meet the projected societal demand for pediatric otolaryngologists.
- Healthcare workforce planning should consider these findings to ensure adequate, but not excessive, specialist supply.