The relativity of unrealistic optimism

The influence of the interaction between the valence of a future event and its perceived controllability on the degree of unrealistic optimism (UO) was tested. It was hypothesized that participants, while comparing themselves to an unknown comparison-target, will assign higher occurrence probabilities for positive-controllable events, and lower occurrence probabilities for negative events to themselves, than respective probabilities assigned to a vague comparison-target. It was further hypothesized that in the case of positive-uncontrollable events the probabilities assigned to oneself might be equal or even lower than those assigned to a comparison-target. These hypotheses were supported in a study in which 62 high school students assigned occurrence probabilities to 12 relevant future events representing 4 categories of events, i.e., positive events perceived as controllable or uncontrollable, and negative events perceived as controllable or uncontrollable. The findings are discussed in terms of cognitive and motivational processes.