Life expectancy in hospitalized patients with AIDS: prognostic factors on admission

In the course of the inevitable hospitalizations of AIDS patients, many difficult questions concerning curative and palliative approaches to care have to be answered. In order to guide these strategies, we conducted a prospective study to identify those variables which can be easily quantified on admission which might be predictive of patient outcomes. Between 1 June 1990 and 25 April 1991, 140 consecutive hospitalizations of 83 AIDS patients were recorded. Demographic, clinical, and biological data were collected within 48 hours of admission. Probable (p <0.10) or definite (p <0.05) factors contributing to a higher mortality included type of opportunistic infections, serum albumin level, total lymphocyte count, weight, CD4 cell count, and neurological manifestations. In the multivariate proportional hazards model, two factors were significantly and independently predictive of lower survival: body weight less than 90% of ideal body weight and neurologic manifestations. The probability of survival was significantly affected by the number of predictive factors present on admission, and patients were significantly more likely to die when these latter two factors were present concomitantly. These factors might be useful to define the optimal mode of care for hospitalized AIDS patients, considering both patients' wishes and an objective assessment of the prognosis.