Prediction of responses to cold

Human function and performance in the cold is much determined by the maintenance of an adequate whole body and local heat balance. Several mathematical models have been developed for describing heat balance and simulating the associated thermoregulatory processes comprising different levels of complexity and capacity. Most models, however, are still primitive in terms of describing clothing heat transfer, solar and wind effects, in particular during transient conditions. They are also simplified in their description of the thermoregulatory control mechanisms and the range of individual variation. Nevertheless, they are useful for--increasing our understanding of complex, interactive processes;--simulating experimental conditions that would exclude human subjects;--identifying thermal conditions of potential risk to human health and performance;--providing guidance for the development of recommendations for cold exposure. Future work should aim at independent validations of model performance and continuous improvement of weak parts.