Assessing women's potential risk of developing breast cancer

Available data show that women tend to overestimate their risk of developing breast cancer. Available models allow for the rapid identification of women who are at increased risk for breast cancer, along with a quantitative estimate of their probability of developing breast cancer over a period of years or by a certain age. Important risk factors include age; family history of breast cancer in first-degree (mother, sister, or daughter) or second-degree (aunt or grandmother) relatives; history of biopsy for benign breast disease, with or without atypical hyperplasia; nulliparity or first live birth after age 30; and menarche before age 12. Risk should be quantified routinely when women seek advice about breast cancer risk-management strategies. Counseling, with appropriate referrals when required, should always accompany specific recommendations for managing risk. Additional predictive models are needed for nonwhite women and for women not being screened regularly with mammography.