Trends in California homicide, 1970 to 1993

In addition to the need to identify homicide trends among well-documented risk groups, this investigation was conducted to expand the limited existing knowledge about the risk of homicide according to educational attainment and among 2 growing ethnic groups, Hispanics and Asians. We examined the death certificates of the 69,621 persons who died of homicide in California from 1970 through 1993. Age, sex, race and ethnicity, and education level of the victim, along with the homicide method, were abstracted from each record. Frequencies, rates, and relative risk were calculated. Substantial increases in the homicide rates occurred for 15- to 19-year-olds (4.0-fold), men (1.9-fold), Hispanics (2.5-fold), and Asians or others (1.7-fold) from 1970 to 1993. The use of firearms consistently accounted for a growing proportion of all homicides, reaching a high in 1993 of 75% for all persons and 90% for 15- to 19-year-olds. High school dropouts have the highest homicide risk of all education groups. Homicide risk differentials by ethnicity, sex, and age all increased during the study period. Persons of color and youth have been disproportionately affected by homicide for many years, and these data indicate that things are getting worse. Redoubled collaborative prevention and intervention efforts are needed to reverse this trend.