The 1990 GP contract: modelling variation in minor surgery provision

Logistic regression was used to determine the extent to which general medical practices undertake the maximum amount of minor surgery activity allowed for in the GP contract. Data on activity for 89 practices in the Grampian region of Scotland was available for two consecutive financial years: 1992-93 and 1993-94. Comparison of the regression models developed in each year showed that rural location and practice size were consistently associated with the maximization of minor surgery activity under the terms of 1990 GP Contract. In 1993-94 practices with a greater proportion of deprived patients were also more likely to be 'maximizers'. Quantitative modelling allows the performance of GPs to be assessed and also helps to identify factors which are a barrier to service development. It seems likely that, in Grampian, GPs who were able to exploit fully the provisions of their contract were those whose patients had the greatest capacity to benefit from minor surgery. Currently the GP contract is nationally negotiated, but in the future local negotiated remuneration is likely to become widespread. Modelling will have an important role in the design and monitoring of incentive structures, and help to ensure that service provision equates to local needs.