Winter excess mortality: a comparison between Norway and England plus Wales

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Epidemiology
• Gerontology

Background:

• Seasonal variations in mortality are influenced by age, temperature, and influenza.
• The UK experiences roughly double the excess winter mortality compared to Scandinavian nations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare the impact of age, temperature, and influenza on winter excess mortality between Norway and England/Wales.
• To investigate the correlation between elderly mortality rates and relative excess winter mortality across Western Europe.

Main Methods:

• Comparative analysis of mortality data from Norway and England/Wales, focusing on winter months (December-March).
• Statistical modeling to assess the relationship between outdoor temperature, age, influenza, and excess winter mortality.
• Correlation analysis using data from 20 Western European countries.

Main Results:

• England and Wales exhibited nearly twice the excess winter mortality compared to Norway, with older individuals most affected.
• A significant negative correlation was found between winter temperature and excess winter mortality in England and Wales.
• The association between excess winter deaths and influenza showed similar magnitudes in both countries.

Conclusions:

• Colder winter temperatures are a significant risk factor for excess winter mortality in England and Wales.
• Age and environmental temperature play crucial roles in exacerbating winter mortality, with regional variations observed.
• Further research into mitigating factors for temperature-related excess winter mortality is warranted.