Prediction of Salmonella mutagenicity

The ability of a number of prediction systems was examined to determine how well they could predict Salmonella mutagenicity. The prediction systems included two computer-based systems (CASE and TOPKAT), the measurement of a physiochemical parameter (ke) and the use of structural alerts by an expert chemist. The computer-based systems operators and the chemist were supplied with the structures of 100 chemicals that had been tested for mutagenicity in the Salmonella test; the actual chemicals were needed for the physiochemical measurement. None of the participants was provided with the chemical names or Salmonella test results prior to submitting their predictions. The three systems that predicted the mutagenicity from the structure of the chemicals produced equivalent results (71-76% concordance with the Salmonella results); the physiochemical system produced a lower (60-61%) concordance.