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On the utility of population forecasts

J Tayman1, D A Swanson

  • 1San Diego Association of Governments, CA 92101, USA. jta@sandag.cog.ca.us

Demography
|November 1, 1996
PubMed
Summary

Population forecasts offer value for rapidly changing or large areas, but less so for others. New methods like composite modeling could enhance forecast utility for all regions.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Geospatial Analysis
  • Statistical Modeling

Background:

  • Population forecasts are crucial for various stakeholders, especially for small geographic areas.
  • Existing research primarily evaluates forecast accuracy, neglecting other performance aspects.
  • The practical usefulness, or utility, of forecasts remains underexplored.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate population forecast utility beyond mere accuracy.
  • To assess the value-added knowledge provided by forecasts for different types of areas.
  • To identify factors influencing the utility of population forecasts.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 2,709 county and census tract population forecasts.
  • Examination of forecast performance based on area characteristics like population size and change.
  • Comparison of forecast utility across diverse geographic scales.

Main Results:

  • Forecasts provide significant value-added knowledge for areas with large populations or rapid demographic change.
  • For many smaller or stable areas, forecast utility is limited, with reduced value being more common than added value.
  • The study highlights variability in forecast usefulness depending on local conditions.

Conclusions:

  • Forecast accuracy alone is insufficient for comprehensive evaluation; utility is a critical metric.
  • Current forecasting approaches may not consistently deliver high utility for all geographic areas.
  • Implementing advanced strategies, including composite modeling, is recommended to improve overall population forecast utility.

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