Population review: (4). Trends in fertility

Fertility in the United Kingdom has now been at a level below that needed for natural replacement of the population (TPFR of 2.1) for more than twenty years. Whilst fertility in many parts of the world (eg most of Europe, and much of the developing world) has declined sharply in recent years, the overall rate in the United Kingdom has been fairly stable (TPFR about 1.8) since 1980. Women are having their children at older ages: fertility rates have been falling for women aged under 30 and rising for women above that age. The mean age at motherhood rose by 1.4 years to 28.4 in England and Wales between 1984 and 1994. The proportion of women in England and Wales who were still childless at age 45 rose to 13 per cent in 1994, and will increase further in the future. One third of births are now to women who are not married, but the recent rapid increase in this proportion may not continue. The percentage of all births which are both outside marriage and registered solely by the mother has been fairly stable (around 7 per cent) for several years. Fertility rates are higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the United Kingdom, and lowest in Scotland and in the North of England. Northern Ireland has the lowest proportion of births outside marriage.