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Decreasing bladder cancer mortality in The Netherlands
L A Kiemeney1, H Straatman, J A Witjes
1Department of Epidemiology, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
British Journal of Urology
|November 1, 1996
Summary
Male bladder cancer mortality in the Netherlands has begun to decrease, a trend expected to continue. Female bladder cancer mortality remains stable, with no increase anticipated.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Oncology
Background:
- Bladder cancer mortality trends in the Netherlands showed an increase in males from 1955 to 1990.
- Female bladder cancer mortality remained stable during the same period.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predicted shift from increasing to decreasing male bladder cancer mortality.
- To analyze temporal trends and cohort effects in bladder cancer mortality.
Main Methods:
- Utilized demographic and mortality data from the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (1955-1994).
- Calculated age-standardized mortality rates per 10(5) person-years.
- Employed log-linear modeling to assess age, period, and cohort effects.
Main Results:
- Male bladder cancer mortality peaked in 1990 and subsequently decreased.
- Female bladder cancer mortality remained consistently low and stable.
- A cohort effect was observed in males, linked to smoking behavior changes, with decreasing risk for cohorts born after 1930.
Conclusions:
- Male bladder cancer mortality in the Netherlands is projected to decline for at least another decade.
- A future rise in female bladder cancer mortality, similar to lung cancer trends, is considered unlikely.