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What predicts relapse? Prospective testing of antecedent models
W R Miller1, V S Westerberg, R J Harris
1Department of Psychology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque 87131, USA.
Addiction (Abingdon, England)
|December 1, 1996
Summary
Understanding alcohol relapse is crucial. This study found that a lack of coping skills and believing in alcoholism as a disease strongly predict relapse in individuals undergoing outpatient treatment.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Addiction Medicine
- Clinical Psychology
Background:
- Relapse is a common challenge in alcohol use disorder treatment.
- Identifying predictors of relapse is essential for effective intervention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine predictors of relapse to drinking in a clinical sample undergoing outpatient treatment.
- To test Marlatt's developmental model of relapse.
Main Methods:
- A clinical sample of 122 individuals with alcohol problems were followed for one year.
- Drinking status and predictor variables (life events, cognitive appraisal, coping, craving, mood) were assessed every two months.
- Pretreatment and proximal (2-month interval) data were analyzed to predict 6-month relapse.
Main Results:
- Negative life events did not predict relapse.
- Cognitive appraisal, coping resources, craving, and mood status all significantly predicted drinking outcomes.
- Proximal antecedents substantially improved prediction over pretreatment characteristics alone.
- Client coping skills and belief in the disease model of alcoholism were optimal predictors of relapse.
Conclusions:
- Marlatt's developmental model of relapse was prospectively supported.
- Lack of coping skills and belief in the disease model are key factors in predicting alcohol relapse.
- Understanding these client factors can inform targeted relapse prevention interventions.