Predicting future long-term-care needs in a community

Under current financial restraints, planning for the future long-term-care needs of older Canadians is coming under increasing scrutiny. Even though health care is moving to a community-based system (i.e., deinstitutionalization), this is not necessarily the most cost-effective strategy for severely disabled older adults. Three models are used in the present paper to estimate the number of severely disabled (two or more ADL disabilities abilities) older adults expected in the next 5 to 10 years in a small community in Northern Ontario. While mortality and disability rates are the main predictors, it was also necessary to consider additional factors particular to the community in question. It is suggested that for long-term-care planning to be effective and economically sound, similar strategies will be needed throughout Canada.