Forecasting the need for physicians in the United States: the Health Resources and Services Administration's...

The Health Resources and Services Administration's Bureau of Health Professions developed a demographic utilization-based model of physician specialty requirements to explore the consequences of a broad range of scenarios pertaining to the nation's health care delivery system on need for physicians.

The model uses selected data primarily from the National Center for Health Statistics, the American Medical Association, and the U.S. Bureau of Census. Forecasts are national estimates.

Current (1989) utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient medical specialty services were obtained for the population according to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and insurance status. These rates are used to estimate specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to physician requirements by applying per-physician productivity estimates.

Secondary data were analyzed and put into matrixes for use in the mainframe computer-based model. Several missing data points, e.g., for HMO-enrolled populations, were extrapolated from available data by the project's contractor.

The authors contend that the Bureau's demographic utilization model represents improvements over other data-driven methodologies that rely on staffing ratios and similar supply-determined bases for estimating requirements. The model's distinct utility rests in offering national-level physician specialty requirements forecasts.