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Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends
1M. A. Cane, A. C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, S. E. Zebiak, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA. R. Murtugudde, Universities Space Research Association, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 14, 1997
Summary
Historical sea surface temperatures reveal global warming and a cooling eastern equatorial Pacific, strengthening the temperature gradient. This observed pattern challenges current climate models simulating greenhouse gas effects.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Global warming trends since 1900 are supported by sea surface temperature (SST) data.
- Historical SST analysis reveals a cooling trend in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
- A strengthening zonal sea surface temperature gradient has been observed concurrently with global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze historical sea surface temperatures and their correlation with global warming.
- To investigate the discrepancy between observed SST patterns and climate model simulations.
- To assess the impact of observed SST patterns on simulated 20th-century global temperature changes.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical sea surface temperature records.
- Comparison of observational data with theoretical predictions of ocean-atmosphere system responses.
- Evaluation of current complex ocean-atmosphere circulation models.
Main Results:
- Evidence for global warming since 1900 confirmed by SST data.
- Observed cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a strengthened zonal SST gradient.
- Current climate models fail to reproduce this observed SST pattern.
Conclusions:
- The observed SST pattern, a cooling eastern equatorial Pacific and strengthened gradient, is a significant finding.
- This pattern, predicted by theoretical studies, is not replicated by current climate models.
- The presence of this pattern may reduce the simulated global temperature increase in the 20th century.