Mortality and functional prognosis in a geriatric population

The prospects of survival and changes in function (need for care) are evaluated after a two-year period for the 1486 persons resident in the geriatric institution "De Gamles By", Copenhagen, on January 15, 1967. It is shown that the logarithm of the survival percentages is approximately a linear function of the time. The prospect of survival is slightly better for the females than for the males because of a significantly higher mortality among the dependent men than among the dependent women. There is no difference as regards sex in the mortality rate for the independent patients (25%). The prospect of survival is poorest in the heavily dependent patients, regardless of sex. Only 5% of the patients were discharged to their homes or transferred to a hospital or some other institution. There was an improvement in the care status, regardless of sex, in 4%, the condition was unchanged in 61%, and there was deterioration in 35% of the 870 patients who survived the two-year period. On the basis of the prospects of surviving whilst waiting for admittance, the saving in institutional places is discussed. The increased need for more accomodation in geriatric institutions is emphasized in order to reduce the unfortunate consequences of the time spent in waiting for admission.