Prognosis of idiopathic membranous nephropathy: a methodologic meta-analysis

Results in studies on prognosis and treatment of membranous nephropathy are conflicting. The aim of this investigation was to analyze the methodology of the existing research and to identify sources of these conflicting results. Studies published on prognosis of membranous nephropathy from 1970 to 1995 were identified using a Medline database literature search. The criteria for inclusion in the methodologic analysis were: (1) original article; (2) cohort study or clinical trial with > or = 50 adults; (3) zero time near the diagnostic renal biopsy; and (4) follow-up > or = six months. Ten well-accepted methodologic standards for prognostic research were applied to each study and the compliance was evaluated. Among the 26 studies that met the inclusion criteria, the median number of standards fulfilled was 4 and the highest was 7. The proportion of studies adhering to the individual standards was: (1) adequate diagnostic criteria, 35%; (2) definite end point, 46%; (3) adequate analysis of a surrogate end point, 52%; (4) analysis of baseline severity, 0%; (5) indication of baseline frequency for candidate predictors, 35%; (6) reproducible classification of predictors, 85%; (7) multivariable analysis, 50%; (8) identification of the variables' importance in multivariable analysis, 38%; (9) evaluation of the effect of treatment on predictors, 19%; and (10) adequate analysis of censored patients, 58%. We conclude that basic methodologic principles have frequently been disregarded. The consideration of these standards in future research can improve the interpretability and applicability of results and help reconcile conflict when results are compared among different studies.