Relationship of critical velocity to marathon running performance

The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the critical velocity (CV) test for prediction of marathon running performance. Twelve subjects [mean age (SD) = 29 (4) years; mean body mass = 63 (13) kg] were tested for CV and completed the 1994 New York City Marathon. The CV (m.s-1) was determined from times to exhaustion at four treadmill running velocities. In addition, peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak; ml.kg-1.min-1) and ventilatory threshold (Thvent) were determined from an incremental treadmill test. The Thvent was calculated using bi-segmental linear regression and was expressed as the velocity (m.s-1) at Thvent. Separate simple linear regression analyses showed that marathon time [MT; mean (SD) = 231.9 (27.4) min] correlated more highly with CV [MT = 445.3 - 50.3 (CV); r2 = 0.76, SEE = 14.1 min] than either VO2peak [MT = 390.7-2.7 (VO2peak); r2 = 0.51, SEE = 20.1 min] or Thvent [MT = 353.5 - 30.1 (Thvent) r2 = 0.28, SEE = 27.4 min]. A stepwise regression analysis resulted in CV (entered first) and Thvent being included in the prediction equation [MT = 443.5-78.9 (CV) + 34.3 (Thvent). R2 = 0.88, SEE = 10.7 min], while VO2peak was not included. These preliminary data indicate that the CV test may be an attractive field test for assessing marathon performance capabilities.