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The control of influenza
Bulletin Der Schweizerischen Akademie Der Medizinischen Wissenschaften
|September 1, 1977
Summary
Influenza virus variability challenges herd immunity and vaccines. Understanding its predictable evolution and secular cycles may allow anticipation of antigenic shifts for disease control.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Epidemiology
- Immunology
Background:
- Influenza virus exhibits extreme antigenic variability, complicating epidemic control.
- Consecutive outbreaks involve antigenically distinct viruses, rendering herd immunity and vaccination largely ineffective.
- The epidemiology is marked by pandemics, with severe pandemics occurring every 10-12 years.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the predictable evolutionary patterns of influenza virus subtypes.
- To explore the potential for laboratory imitation of viral evolution for vaccine development.
- To assess the possibility of anticipating major antigenic shifts.
Main Methods:
- Observation of influenza virus variability and outbreak patterns.
- Laboratory imitation of influenza virus evolution to generate mutant strains.
- Analysis of subtype eras and secular cycles in influenza epidemiology.
Main Results:
- Influenza virus evolution follows a predictable course during subtype eras.
- Laboratory methods can yield mutant viruses as prospective vaccines.
- Indications suggest a limited number of subtypes linked in a 70-year secular cycle.
Conclusions:
- Anticipating major antigenic shifts in influenza viruses may be possible.
- Understanding secular cycles could lead to full control of influenza disease.
- Prospective vaccines can be developed through laboratory imitation of viral evolution.