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The predictive validity of reproductive intentions

C F Westoff, N B Ryder

    Demography
    |November 1, 1977
    PubMed
    Summary

    Fertility intentions reported in 1970 overestimated actual births between 1971-1975, similar to the total fertility rate. However, individual-level predictions of fertility intentions showed considerable validity compared to other indicators.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Sociology
    • Reproductive Health

    Background:

    • Assessing the accuracy of fertility predictions is crucial for demographic and policy planning.
    • Previous studies have explored various indicators of future fertility behavior.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To evaluate the aggregate and individual validity of reported fertility intentions.
    • To compare the predictive power of fertility intentions with other demographic measures.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized data from the 1975 National Fertility Study (NFS).
    • Reinterviewed continuously married white women previously surveyed in the 1970 NFS.
    • Analyzed reported fertility intentions against actual fertility outcomes over a five-year period (1971-1975).

    Main Results:

    • At the aggregate level, 1970 fertility intentions overestimated 1971-1975 fertility, matching the overestimation by the 1970 total fertility rate.
    • Individual-level analysis revealed that reported fertility intentions possessed considerable validity.
    • Fertility intentions demonstrated comparable vulnerabilities to other period-based fertility measures at the aggregate level.

    Conclusions:

    • Reported fertility intentions, while imperfect, offer valuable insights into future fertility trends.
    • Individual-level fertility intentions serve as a more reliable indicator than aggregate measures.
    • Further research should explore the nuances of intention formation and its relationship with actual fertility behavior.

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