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Downsizing the physician workforce

B J McClendon1, R M Politzer, E Christian

  • 1Bureau of Health Professions, Health Resources and Services Administration, Rockville, MD, USA.

Public Health Reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)
|May 1, 1997
PubMed
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The US physician workforce needs downsizing, particularly in internal medicine subspecialties and hospital-based fields. Current physician supply exceeds needs, indicating a surplus of new doctors entering the field annually.

Area of Science:

  • Health Policy
  • Medical Economics
  • Physician Workforce Analysis

Background:

  • The healthcare landscape is evolving, necessitating an evaluation of physician supply.
  • Managed care models are increasingly influencing healthcare delivery and physician demand.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the required reduction in physician workforce numbers.
  • To assess physician supply needs in a changing healthcare environment, particularly under managed care.

Main Methods:

  • Calculated the annual number of new physicians required to maintain 1993 physician-to-population ratios.
  • Compared projected needs with the actual number of new physicians entering practice (1990-1994).
  • Estimated specialty-specific downsizing needs for a managed care-dominated system.

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Main Results:

  • Maintaining 1993 physician-to-population ratios would require 14,644 new physicians annually; the actual supply (20,655) indicated a surplus of 6,011.
  • Non-primary care specialties required a 33% downsizing (4,829 physicians), while primary care needed a 20% reduction (1,182 physicians).
  • Seventeen specialties, including most internal medicine subspecialties, needed over 40% downsizing; managed care would exacerbate this need.

Conclusions:

  • Data indicate a clear need to reduce the overall physician supply in the United States.
  • Internal medicine subspecialties and hospital-based specialties show the most significant need for downsizing.
  • Surgeons and primary care physicians also require some degree of workforce reduction.