Long-term prognosis for patients with chronic leg ulcers: a prospective cohort study

To assess the long-term prognosis of leg ulcers.

A 5 year prospective cohort study.

A random sample of 382 patients with open leg ulcers (foot ulcers included) treated in the community.

Interim analyses were made at 15 months (arterial ulcers) and at 20 months (varicose ulcers). Long-term healing was assessed at 54 months by a postal questionnaire. Five year survival was assessed by official population registries.

At 54 months 212 patients (55%) were still alive, of whom 124 (58%) had healed their ulcers, 80 (38%) had open ulcers and eight (4%) were amputated. The healing was worst for patients with venous ulcers, only 44% had healed their original ulcers without recurrence. The 5 year survival was 52%, significantly lower than for age- and sex-matched controls (68%) (p = 0.0002). Patients with venous ulcers had a survival not significantly different from controls and patients with arterial or other aetiologies had a doubled risk of death. Diabetic patients had a lower survival than non-diabetics (p < 0.05) and controls (p < 0.0001), but the healing prognosis was not significantly different.

Only patients with non-venous ulcers have a higher mortality than expected. The long-term healing prognosis for leg ulcer patients is poor and worst for patients with venous ulcers.