[PATHYPRE: Pascal program for the estimation of the individual course of patients with papillary thyroid cancer]

Individual survival probability estimation provided by mathematical models based on cases with a known clinical course is of great help as concerns the treatment strategy decision relating to malignant tumours. Data on four hundred Hungarian papillary thyroid cancer patients were used together with the Markov method to construct a survival model (Orv. Hetil. 1996 137: 1067-1078,) for prediction of the individual clinical course of newly diagnosed cases for 30 years following surgical intervention. Input data included the age, the primary tumour size and extent (pT), distant metastasis at presentation, the extent of the surgical intervention, the external irradiation dosage and the degree of TSH suppression. From the input data, the PATHYPRE program can estimate the individual local/regional/distant relapse-free survival probabilities and overall cause-specific survival probability. The survival probabilities may be predicted for variations in the treatment parameters, and thus the model helps in the selection of the most appropriate therapy for the patient. The PATHYPRE software is available through the Internet connections on the home page of the National Institute of Oncology, Budapest (www.oncol.hu).