Pelvic recurrence following resection of rectal cancer: a multivariate predictive model

Local recurrence of rectal cancer (LR) after "curative" surgery is a major clinical problem, with a low resectability rate and a dismal prognosis. Prediction of LR might permit more targeted postoperative surveillance with earlier diagnosis of recurrent disease and might help in selecting the patients to be assigned to the most suitable adjuvant treatment protocol. To evaluate if a simple multivariate model could predict the LR and survival probability in the single case, we retrospectively evaluated 118 consecutive patients (63 males, 55 females; mean age 62 +/- 12 years) operated on for rectal cancer and followed up for a minimum of 4 years (range 51-111 months). Local recurrence rate was 28%, with a 6% of local + distant failure. Age and sex of patients, type of surgery, location of tumour in the rectum, size, morphology and grading of the tumour were all unrelated to the event under investigation. At Cox regression, the Dukes' stage and the postoperative radiotherapy were the only independent prognostic factors for LR (p < 0.001). The multivariate model was able to correctly reclassify the patients and predict local recurrence in 86.2% of the cases. Prevention of LR by adequate surgery and adjuvant therapy as well as its early detection offer the best prospect of improving the results of surgery for rectal cancer.