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Fears and other suspected risk factors for carrying lethal weapons among urban youths of middle-school age
A Arria1, G Borges, J C Anthony
1Department of Mental Hygiene, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md, USA.
Objective:
To estimate the strength of a suspected causal association between fearfulness and carrying a lethal weapon among urban middle-school students, while holding constant other suspected risk factors.
Design:
A prospective study of an epidemiological sample assessed at baseline in 1992 and 1 year later, with relative risk estimates derived from the conditional form of the multiple logistic regression model used to hold constant alternative explanatory variables.
Setting:
An urban environment in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States.
Participants:
An epidemiological sample of 1131 youths enrolled in public middle schools.
Main Outcome Measures:
Carrying a lethal weapon for protection or defense during a 1-year observation interval after the baseline assessment of fears and other suspected risk factors.
Results:
Of the 1131 youths, 194 (17%) reported carrying a lethal weapon for protection or defense during the 1-year interval of follow-up observation after baseline; 937 youths (83%) reported that they had not carried a lethal weapon for any reason. Self-reported fears, deviant peer affiliation, and worrying were associated with risk of starting to carry a weapon. For youths with the lowest worrying scores, the lowest neighborhood danger scores, and the least affiliation with deviant peers, self-reported fears were associated with risk of starting to carry a lethal weapon (relative risk estimate, 1.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.52; P = .01), even after holding constant age, sex, and conduct problems. However, the fear of crowded or closed-in places and the fear of leaving home alone were more salient risk factors than the fear of using public transportation or the fear of open spaces.
Conclusions:
In this study, youths with fears were at greater risk of carrying a lethal weapon for protection or defense, even when alternative explanatory variables were taken into account. Pending confirmation by other investigators, this new finding could point out a useful target for public health interventions to reduce the carrying of weapons and associated violence in urban America.
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