End-of-treatment self-efficacy: a predictor of abstinence

Results of previous studies suggest that end-of-treatment self-efficacy in problem drinkers has limited predictive validity. One explanation for this finding has been the postulated existence of a ceiling effect, i.e. the possibility that subjects who rate themselves highly in terms of self-efficacy form a heterogeneous group with some subjects making inflated self-efficacy judgements based on an over-optimistic perception of their coping abilities. In the present study, end-of-treatment self-efficacy in 63 problem drinkers, as measured by the Situational Confidence Questionnaire and a newly designed Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (SEQ), was predictive of abstinence status at 3 month follow-up. In those patients who on the SEQ had expressed great confidence in their ability to remain abstinent over the follow-up period, the additional consideration of keyworkers' confidence in their patients' ability to remain abstinent as well as patients' anticipated need for future help improved the prediction of abstinence status. These results are discussed with respect to the postulated ceiling effect. A prognostic tree using just three baseline variables predicted abstinence status correctly in 88% of all cases.