Survival of adults with AIDS in the United Kingdom

Accurate estimates of expected survival times and survival rates of AIDS patients are important both for estimating the prognosis of individuals and for monitoring the progress of the HIV/AIDS epidemic as new treatments are introduced. They are also needed for projecting future numbers of AIDS cases. Data on reported AIDS cases held at the PHLS AIDS Centre at the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre and the Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health confirmed the time, age, and reporting delay effects identified in earlier analyses of the United Kingdom AIDS database. The duration of survival after AIDS is diagnosed has improved since the epidemic began--median survival was 10.6 months in cases diagnosed before 1987 and has been at least 18.4 months in cases diagnosed each year since then. People who are diagnosed younger live longer--median survival fell from 21.6 months at age 15 to 29 to 12.6 months at age 45 or over. Delay in reporting AIDS cases adversely affects survival estimates for cases reported in recent years. Survival was longer in cases reported over a year after diagnosis of AIDS--23.7 months compared with 16.9 months in those reported less than a year after diagnosis. The experience of the hospital, measured by its cumulative AIDS caseload, was an important factor in the survival of men who have sex with men presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma alone or 'other' diagnoses--survival was shorter for cases reported from smaller centres. Men who have sex with men with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia alone or other opportunistic infections alone who were known to be HIV positive before being diagnosed with AIDS had a shorter survival after being diagnosed than those who were unaware of their HIV infection. This supports the hypothesis that treatment for HIV infection and prophylaxis may extend the period before AIDS develops but reduce the period between developing AIDS and dying.