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Computer simulation to support policy making in the control of pseudorabies
J Buijtels1, R Huirne, A Dijkhuizen
1Department of Farm Management, Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands.
Veterinary Microbiology
|April 1, 1997
Summary
A computer simulation model for Pseudorabies in swine shows that vaccination is essential for eradication. Two vaccinations per cycle for fattening pigs are needed for eradication within 2-3 years.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Animal health economics
- Swine disease modeling
Background:
- International market integration necessitates coordinated policies for contagious animal diseases.
- Stricter future demands for disease control and eradication require advanced evaluation tools.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and describe a computer simulation model for evaluating Pseudorabies (PRV) in swine.
- To assess epidemiological and economic effects of PRV and control strategies.
- To inform policy decisions regarding PRV eradication.
Main Methods:
- A state-based simulation model for swine herds (breeding and finishing).
- Model incorporates 24 states based on reproduction ratio (R), prevalence, and infectious animals.
- Weekly transition matrices calculated using experimental and field data, including vaccination strategies and contact networks.
Main Results:
- The simulation indicates Pseudorabies will persist in the Dutch swine population without vaccination.
- A vaccination strategy of 3/year for sows and 1/cycle for fattening pigs can eradicate the infection.
- Eradication within 2-3 years requires 2 vaccinations/cycle for fattening pigs.
Conclusions:
- Vaccination is critical for Pseudorabies eradication in Dutch swine.
- Specific vaccination protocols are proposed for effective and timely eradication.
- The model provides a framework for evaluating animal disease control strategies.