[Long-term changes in availability of domestic nursing care based on family structure changes--a model calculation]

A central hypothesis in German family sociology is the observation of a disruption of family structures. If this disintegration prevails up to highest ages it must, among others, lead to an increasing inability to perform nursing care within families. The most important person in case of a need for nursing care is the spouse. The main topic of this paper is to determine whether demographic and familiar developments in Germany will increase or decrease the share of men and women at higher ages with a living spouse within the next decades. In spite of a slowly increasing share of the never-married and the divorced, on the average elderly men and women will be married to a greater and widowed to a much lesser proportion within the next decade. The Dutch LIPRO-model is used to calculate the exact numerical developments. The surprising result is primarily due to the fact that the actual high shares of the widowed are a consequence of distortions caused by the two World Wars. During the next few decades, these unusual developments will disappear even among the most elderly.