Dynamic systems-modeling as a means to estimate community-based prevention effects

The best applications of prevention programming now are believed to be community-supported strategies, comprehensive in scope, implemented in stages, and delivered by public and private agencies and organizations. Despite the flurry of program activity, research directed toward comprehensive, community-based prevention programming remains a largely uncharted domain. Communities need to know what will work-in their specific contexts. The essential question communities are asking themselves and consultants is, "Which mix of interventions will yield maximum reduction in alcohol and other drug (AOD) abuse in our community?" Computer-based dynamic simulation modeling holds promise in helping provide an answer to this question. These models are designed to replicate the historic patterns and dynamics of target communities with regard to substance availability, use, and misuse and then to simulate future patterns and dynamics under alternative assumptions and intervention mixes. Researchers can use these models to construct structural relationships that reflect alternative theories or explanations for important processes. The models afford community planners and decision-makers with mechanisms for asking "what if" questions regarding alternative intervention mixes and, consequently, for determining which politically acceptable mix of feasible interventions will yield the most reduction in AOD-related problem behaviors. In this chapter, a model under development by the Prevention Research Center of the Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation is described that focuses on alcohol use and misuse in communities and allows the testing of a wide range of prevention options.