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Suspiciousness, mental simulation, and norm theory

R B Pipes1, M A Bowers, K K Hilton

  • 1Department of Counseling and Counseling Psychology, Auburn University, AL 36849, USA. pipesrb@mail.auburn.edu

The Journal of Social Psychology
|August 1, 1997
PubMed
Summary
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Replication studies failed to consistently support norm theory's prediction that easier mental simulation increases suspiciousness. Findings suggest the ease of imagining an event may not reliably influence judgments of suspicion.

Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Social Psychology
  • Cognitive Psychology

Background:

  • Norm theory (Kahneman & Miller, 1986) posits that counterfactual thinking influences judgments.
  • Miller, Turnbull, and McFarland (1989) previously found ease of mental simulation affected suspiciousness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To replicate and test predictions from norm theory regarding mental simulation and suspiciousness.
  • To investigate whether manipulating event probability or attitude influences the relationship between ease of simulation and suspicion.

Main Methods:

  • Seven studies were conducted, with the first three using identical materials to Miller et al. (1989).
  • Subsequent studies manipulated the objective probability of events and, in the final study, also varied attitudes toward the target.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Judgments of suspiciousness were measured in relation to the ease of mentally simulating events.

    • Main Results:

    • The initial three replication studies did not confirm that ease of mental simulation affected suspiciousness.
    • Modifying event probability in studies 4-6 did not yield significant results.
    • Study 7 found a main effect for ease of mental simulation, but this was only present in one of three vignettes.

    Conclusions:

    • The findings cast doubt on the robustness of norm theory's predictions regarding the ease of mental simulation influencing suspiciousness.
    • The ease with which an event can be mentally simulated may not be a reliable predictor of judgments of suspicion across different contexts.
    • Further research is needed to understand the boundary conditions and specific factors that moderate the relationship between counterfactual ease and social judgment.