How many neurosurgeons do we want to educate in Europe annually? The Danish proposal

The neurosurgical population consists of professors, consultants, specialised senior registrars, and doctors in training (senior registrars, trainees and young doctors to be educated as neurosurgeons). Knowing number and size of the neurosurgical departments in each European country, the number of staff members, the politics of retirement (age, educational level) and the age of every neurosurgeon it is possible to calculate the exact number of trainees needed per year to maintain a state of balance in every single European country. With Denmark as a model we based our assessments partly on a simple calculation model of the exact annual number of neurosurgical trainees or senior registrars and partly used an actuary flow model for calculation. In Denmark with 5 neurosurgical departments, 5.2 mill. population and a retirement age of 70, we have an average of 1-2 newcomers per year and maintain a bulk of 10 senior registrars in education. Thus there will be a balance between intake of newcomers and retirement, of course with some unknown factors as unforeseen dismissal or resignation, death rate among neurosurgeons and transfer to private practice.