Epidemiologic studies of ionizing radiation and cancer: past successes and future challenges

The health effects of radiation have been a focus for research since early in the 20th century. As the century ends, extensive experimental and epidemiologic evidence has been accumulated that addresses the adverse consequences of radiation exposure; epidemiologic studies of radiation-exposed groups from the general population and specific occupational groups provide quantitative estimates of the cancer risks associated with exposure. This report provides a perspective on the extensive epidemiologic evidence on the health effects of ionizing radiation and on likely needs for further epidemiologic research on radiation and health. Epidemiologic studies have proved informative on the quantitative risks of radiation-caused cancer but we now face the challenges of more precisely characterizing risks at lower levels of exposure and also of assessing modifiers of the risks, including dose rate, genetic susceptibility, and other environmental exposures. This report considers investigative approaches, such as pooled analysis of multiple data sets, that can be used to address these complex questions and the limitations of these approaches for addressing societal concerns about the risks of radiation exposure.