[A mathematical model of pre-epidemic circulation: an analysis of the mechanisms of oriented transformation]
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Updated: Oct 31, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Abstract:
The probable mechanisms of the regulation of the clonal composition of the infective agent in the course of its pre-epidemic circulation are studied. The mathematical model (in the form of two subsystems) describes asymptomatic circulation and the dynamics of the clonal composition: the beginning of the active circulation of faintly virulent variants, the oriented selection of virulent variants and the fixation of the epidemic variant.
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