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[Future developments in medicine: expert assessment]

C Wild1

  • 1Institut für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung, Osterr, Akademie der Wissenschaften, Wien.

Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband Der Arzte Des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))
|July 1, 1997
PubMed
Summary
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Future medical research priorities focus on cancer and dementia, alongside implants and artificial organs, driven by demographic shifts. Basic research receives less attention, while home healthcare advances with new technologies.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Futures Research
  • Healthcare System Forecasting
  • Sociomedical Care Innovations

Background:

  • Western countries utilize Delphi expert surveys for future medical and healthcare predictions.
  • Demographic changes significantly influence perceived research priorities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To forecast future developments in medicine and healthcare systems.
  • To identify key areas of medical research and care likely to gain prominence.

Main Methods:

  • Conducting Delphi expert surveys in various Western countries.
  • Analyzing expert opinions on future medical trends and healthcare needs.

Main Results:

  • Cancer and dementia research are highly relevant future priorities.

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  • Development of implantation materials and artificial organs is of significant interest.
  • Sociomedical care at home is expected to increase due to technological advancements.

    • Conclusions:

    • Future medical research will likely concentrate on age-related diseases and regenerative medicine.
    • Technological progress in telecommunication and diagnostics will enhance home-based healthcare.
    • A shift in focus from basic research to applied and clinically relevant areas is indicated.