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Adaptation and extinction in changing environments

R Bürger1, M Lynch

  • 1Institute of Mathematics, University of Vienna, Wien, Austria.

EXS
|January 1, 1997
PubMed
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Population extinction risk is influenced by demographics, environment, and genetic adaptation. Models assess vulnerability to stochasticity and environmental changes, exploring genetic variability

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Genetics
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Population extinction risk is determined by demographic factors, environmental conditions, and genetic adaptability.
  • Stochastic and directional components influence these demographic and environmental factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review models of small population vulnerability to demographic stochasticity and environmental changes.
  • To explore the impact of mutation and genetic variability on population persistence.
  • To estimate critical rates of environmental change leading to extinction.

Main Methods:

  • Review of population viability analysis (PVA) models.
  • Exploration of genetic models incorporating mutation and variability.
  • Estimation of extinction thresholds under various environmental change scenarios.

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Main Results:

  • Identified key demographic and genetic factors influencing extinction risk.
  • Quantified the impact of mutation and genetic variability on population persistence time.
  • Estimated critical environmental change rates beyond which extinction is highly probable.

Conclusions:

  • Demographic stochasticity, environmental unpredictability, and limited genetic diversity significantly increase extinction risk.
  • Genetic variability plays a crucial role in a population's ability to adapt and persist.
  • Understanding these factors is vital for effective conservation strategies and predicting species survival.